TAPIWA MASHAKADA, OPINION
The stability of African states now appears to depend on the relationship between Presidents and their Deputies, on the one hand and the relationship between successors and their predecessors, on the other.
What is happening in South Africa is an eye of the power struggle storm. It all started when former President Thabo Mbeki removed Jacob Zuma as deputy President.
On the other hand, Zuma fought back and toppled Mbeki at a party conference. When Zuma landed the Presidency, Cyril Ramaphosa became his deputy. The relationship between the two was an uneasy one, leading to the forced resignation of Zuma before the end of his second term.
Ramaphosa became the 2nd center of power. The corruption scandals of Zuma only worsened the situation. The violence that followed the jailing of Zuma has divided the South African society. It has claimed more than 100 lives and destroyed property worth millions of Rands.
The full costs of the protests are still bring calculated but the Mbeki-Zuma-Ramaphosa succession debacle is at the epicenter of what is happening in South Africa. Its a lesson on un-smooth succession politics.
Another example is South Sudan where the fallout between Salvar Kiir and his deputy Reik Machar led to a civil war after Kiir fired Machar. The youngest state in Africa was plunged into a fierce civil war which has been brokered twice.
The first truce did not hold and war broke out. The conflict in South Sudan has been regionalized. Uganda is backing Salva Kiir while Kenya is supporting the rebel Vice President, Riek Ma char. Again this is yet another case of succession failure.
The third example of succession failure is Zimbabwe. The late President Robert Mugabe removed Joyce Mujuru as VP due to succession complexes.
He appointed Emerson Mnangagwa who was also fired at the climax of the ZANU PF succession battles in 2017.
In the 3 cases that I have reviewed, there is a nexus between Vice Presidents and their relationships with their Presidents.
The other ugly side of succession politics in Africa relates to former Presidents who handpick their successors only to be persecuted when they live office. Examples are Zambia, Botswana, Angola, Mali, Burkina Faso only to mention a few.
In Zambia, President Chiluba succeeded the late Kenneth Kaunda and began persecuting him. At one stage Kaunda was jailed and stripped of his citizenship.
In Botswana, Ian Khama passed the button to Mokgweetsi Masisi who immediately started persecuting him.
In Angola, DOS Santos left office and his successor pursued him. Now Santos is in self imposed exile in Spain.
In Burkina Faso Captain Thomas Sankara was ousted by Blaise Campaore who in turn was removed by his lieutenants. The same applies to Mali where a second coup happened in 2021.
Africa has failed to bring about smooth transition of Leadership. Even the opposition has not been spared of this succession failure.
The biggest challenge is that of handpicking successors. The other problem is to do with strong Vice Presidents who become alternative centers of power unto themselves. As I write this piece I still don’t have a solution to this African political quagmire.
How can Africa achieve smooth succession and transition from one leader to another?
- Professor Tapiwa Mashakada, Founder and Senior Research Fellow-Maji- Marefu Institute.
